2001 · Week 15
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.025
- 38.2%Success rate39.6%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.6%
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.43
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 21/38 | 248 | 3 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 6 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 11 | 55 | 2 |
| Boo Williams | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/31 | 207 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Moore | 3 | 5 | 55 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 2 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.50