Closing spread
SF -3
Total
40
Model margin
+5.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.097
- 39.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 31.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.34Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:55 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:39 | 13 | 85 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:51 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:48 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:54 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 7:04 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 6:05 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| PHI | Q2 1:44 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 3–3 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q3 13:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| PHI | Q3 12:13 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q3 9:53 | 15 | 66 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PHI | Q3 0:35 | 10 | 64 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| SF | Q4 10:43 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| PHI | Q4 6:52 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 3–13 |
| SF | Q4 4:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–13 |
| PHI | Q4 2:18 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| SF | Q4 0:58 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 3–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/34 | 232 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 9 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/24 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.19