Closing spread
SF -3
Total
40
Model margin
+5.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.097
- 39.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 31.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.34Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/34 | 232 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 9 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamie Reader | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/24 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.19