Closing spread
NYJ -7
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.031
- 39.3%Success rate41.1%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- 34.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.05Points / drive1.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 14:01 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 8:36 | 11 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:35 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 14:09 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:19 | 3 | 50 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 8:58 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:36 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 3:37 | 11 | 87 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:19 | 3 | 27 | End of half | 7–6 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:17 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 14–6 |
| BUF | Q3 11:06 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 14–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:39 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 14–6 |
| BUF | Q3 5:28 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 14–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:23 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 14–9 |
| BUF | Q4 12:36 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 14–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:50 | 11 | 50 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| BUF | Q4 1:46 | 4 | 5 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:47 | 7 | 33 | End of half | 14–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 16/27 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 28 | 107 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 8 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 19/37 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 123 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 7 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35