Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.125
- 45.1%Success rate36.1%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- 44.9%Third-down rate32.7%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.93Points / drive0.93
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/36 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 7 | 47 | 2 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Vinny Sutherland | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 15/25 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 26 | 126 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 6 | 11 | 146 | 1 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.72