2001 · Week 16

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

21·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.125
  • 45.1%Success rate36.1%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.132
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate32.7%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive0.93
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.034

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DAL
SFQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:3839Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:58731Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 5:261369Field goal0–3
SFQ2 12:19443Touchdown7–3
DALQ2 10:07985Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 4:44413Turnover7–10
DALQ2 3:1361Punt7–10
SFQ2 1:26866Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 0:121-1End of half14–10
DALQ3 15:001075Touchdown14–17
SFQ3 10:1134Punt14–17
DALQ3 8:23689Touchdown14–24
SFQ3 5:50517Punt14–24
DALQ3 3:251378Field goal14–27
SFQ4 10:29613Punt14–27
DALQ4 7:3768Punt14–27
SFQ4 4:001079Turnover on downs14–27
DALQ4 2:1338Punt14–27
SFQ4 1:0734Touchdown21–27
DALQ4 0:391-1End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia21/3622920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst11353.20
Kevan Barlow5153.00
Jeff Garcia166.01
Terry Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens59930
J.J. Stokes47472
Eric Johnson46330
Tai Streets24270
Kevan Barlow12130
Terry Jackson1160
Vinny Sutherland1150
Garrison Hearst2330
Justin Swift1120

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter15/2524120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith261264.80
Quincy Carter10303.01
Michael Wiley4246.00
Troy Hambrick461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway6111461
Raghib Ismail33460
Troy Hambrick13270
Mike Lucky1370
Ken-Yon Rambo1160
Emmitt Smith1140
Michael Wiley1130
Darrin Chiaverini1121
Jackie Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.72