2001 · Week 16
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
NO -5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.068
- 38.9%Success rate38.2%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 34.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.18Points / drive1.58
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 9/15 | 94 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Tony Banks | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeron Flemister | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/28 | 127 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21