Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.023
- 39.3%Success rate41.2%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.05Points / drive1.31
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Brown | 15/33 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 3/7 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 16 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Travis Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 9/16 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 30 | 158 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.17