Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.054
- 45.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.76
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:51 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:15 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:01 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| SF | Q1 4:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| GB | Q1 1:46 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| SF | Q1 0:52 | 7 | 28 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| GB | Q2 11:47 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| SF | Q2 7:06 | 15 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–6 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| SF | Q3 8:52 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–9 |
| GB | Q3 5:37 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–15 |
| SF | Q3 3:26 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–15 |
| GB | Q3 1:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–15 |
| SF | Q4 14:47 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 15–15 |
| GB | Q4 12:00 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 15–18 |
| SF | Q4 7:02 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 15–18 |
| GB | Q4 4:53 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 15–25 |
| SF | Q4 1:55 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 15–25 |
| GB | Q4 1:46 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 15–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/32 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Vinny Sutherland | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/29 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73