Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.054
- 45.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- 44.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.93Points / drive1.76
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 22/32 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Vinny Sutherland | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/29 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 2 | 2 | 56 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73