Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. NE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/52 | 312 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 8 | 16 | 107 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 10 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Fred Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.