Closing spread
NE -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. NE are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:19 | 9 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:27 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:58 | 8 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:14 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:52 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:20 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 7:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 5:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:56 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 1:51 | 4 | 36 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:46 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 7–0 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q3 8:39 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NE | Q3 4:14 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 3:19 | 6 | 24 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| NE | Q3 1:41 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LV | Q4 14:12 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NE | Q4 12:29 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 7:52 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 13–10 |
| NE | Q4 3:35 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 13–10 |
| LV | Q4 2:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–10 |
| NE | Q4 2:06 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 0:27 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–13 |
| NE | OT | 14 | 61 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/52 | 312 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 8 | 16 | 107 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 10 | 13 | 68 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Fred Coleman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.