2001 · CON

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

24·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.060
  • 41.5%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 41.6%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.58
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
NEQ1 15:00312Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:4932Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:46310Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:35710Punt0–0
NEQ1 8:08524Punt0–0
PITQ1 5:5834Opp touchdown7–0
NEQ1 3:4200Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 3:42965Field goal7–3
NEQ2 13:3369Punt7–3
PITQ2 10:2736Punt7–3
NEQ2 9:211038Punt7–3
PITQ2 3:393-3Punt7–3
NEQ2 2:42775Touchdown14–3
PITQ2 0:58838Turnover14–3
PITQ3 15:00311Turnover14–3
NEQ3 14:0153Turnover on downs14–3
PITQ3 12:55931Opp touchdown21–3
NEQ3 8:5100Opp touchdown21–3
PITQ3 8:51968Touchdown21–10
NEQ3 5:113-7Punt21–10
PITQ3 3:10532Touchdown21–17
NEQ3 1:291050Field goal24–17
PITQ4 11:12629Punt24–17
NEQ4 8:20928Punt24–17
PITQ4 4:21413Turnover24–17
NEQ4 2:4132Missed field goal24–17
PITQ4 2:1520Turnover24–17
NEQ4 2:02515End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady12/1811500
Drew Bledsoe10/2110210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith15473.10
J.R. Redmond3134.30
Tom Brady231.50
Drew Bledsoe410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown8111210
David Patten411391
Charles Johnson23220
Jermaine Wiggins2470
J.R. Redmond2420
Fred Coleman0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart24/4225503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kordell Stewart8415.10
Amos Zereoue4112.81
Jerome Bettis980.91
Hines Ward1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress512670
Hines Ward611640
Amos Zereoue44500
Jerome Bettis22230
Troy Edwards24160
Matt Cushing11100
Bobby Shaw1390
Jerame Tuman1230
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.48