Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.060
- 41.5%Success rate42.5%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.5%
- 41.6%Third-down rate45.8%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.32Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 12/18 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 10/21 | 102 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| David Patten | 4 | 11 | 39 | 1 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Fred Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 24/42 | 255 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.99
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.48