Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+3.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play+0.010
- 38.5%Success rate42.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.51CPOE-2.06
- 34.3%Third-down rate39.1%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.35Points / drive1.85
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/47 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 3 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/36 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 15 | 14 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 4 | 4 | 95 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.63
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17