2019 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

3·33

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+3.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.136EPA / play+0.010
  • 38.5%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.51CPOE-2.06
  • 34.3%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.85
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
NEQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:54727Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:54892Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:46414Punt0–7
NEQ1 2:161155Field goal0–10
PITQ2 11:5239Punt0–10
NEQ2 10:0033Punt0–10
PITQ2 9:1245Punt0–10
NEQ2 6:58680Touchdown0–17
PITQ2 3:49728Turnover on downs0–17
NEQ2 1:57730Field goal0–20
PITQ2 0:1714End of half0–20
PITQ3 15:001167Field goal3–20
NEQ3 10:17475Touchdown3–27
PITQ3 8:05730Punt3–27
NEQ3 5:20873Field goal3–30
PITQ3 0:13830Turnover on downs3–30
NEQ4 12:261445Field goal3–33
PITQ4 6:38629Turnover3–33
NEQ4 4:173-3Punt3–33
PITQ4 2:06844End of half3–33

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/4727601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner10212.10
Ben Roethlisberger177.00
Jaylen Samuels242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster68780
James Washington26510
James Conner44440
Vance McDonald24400
Ryan Switzer66290
Diontae Johnson35250
Donte Moncrief31070
Jaylen Samuels1220
Johnny Holton0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3634130
Julian Edelman1/13200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead8445.50
James White4266.50
Sony Michel15140.90
Julian Edelman188.00
Brandon Bolden177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Phillip Dorsett44952
Julian Edelman611830
Josh Gordon34731
James White57560
Rex Burkhead58410
Jakobi Meyers11220
Ryan Izzo1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.63
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.17