Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.128
- 46.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.74CPOE+2.98
- 41.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.24Points / drive2.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 31/47 | 314 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 7 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 2 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/42 | 384 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 9 | 12 | 180 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 10 | 118 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.61