2016 · CON

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

17·36

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.128
  • 46.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.74CPOE+2.98
  • 41.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
NEQ1 15:00562Field goal0–3
PITQ1 13:0839Punt0–3
NEQ1 11:273-11Punt0–3
PITQ1 10:06617Punt0–3
NEQ1 7:231180Touchdown0–10
PITQ1 2:471384Touchdown6–10
NEQ2 11:31982Touchdown6–17
PITQ2 7:431470Field goal9–17
NEQ2 1:39413End of half9–17
PITQ3 15:0036Punt9–17
NEQ3 13:10940Field goal9–20
PITQ3 9:59836Punt9–20
NEQ3 6:36888Touchdown9–27
PITQ3 2:4413Turnover9–27
NEQ3 2:36428Touchdown9–33
PITQ3 1:351068Turnover on downs9–33
NEQ4 13:06515Punt9–33
PITQ4 10:2610Turnover9–33
NEQ4 10:14825Field goal9–36
PITQ4 6:24975Touchdown17–36
NEQ4 3:36312End of half17–36

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger31/4731411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams14342.41
Le'Veon Bell6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown79770
Eli Rogers710660
DeAngelo Williams77510
Jesse James57480
Cobi Hamilton25371
Sammie Coates25340
David Johnson1110
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/4238430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount16472.91
Dion Lewis6111.80
James White100.00
Tom Brady4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan9121802
Julian Edelman8101181
Martellus Bennett55320
Danny Amendola22120
LeGarrette Blount1180
Dion Lewis2280
James White3480
Malcolm Mitchell1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.61