Closing spread
PIT -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play+0.154
- 44.1%Success rate48.2%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.58CPOE+10.94
- 40.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.11Points / drive2.47
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/23 | 139 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 28/37 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 11 | 90 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.59