2025 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·14

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.154
  • 44.1%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.58CPOE+10.94
  • 40.4%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.47
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
NEQ1 15:0047Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:181048Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 8:25613Punt7–0
PITQ1 5:121370Touchdown14–0
NEQ2 13:491061Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 9:0135Punt14–7
NEQ2 7:201894Turnover14–7
PITQ2 0:0700End of half14–7
PITQ3 15:0030Turnover14–7
NEQ3 13:36210Turnover14–7
PITQ3 13:1248Punt14–7
NEQ3 11:24311Turnover14–7
PITQ3 10:0833Punt14–7
NEQ3 8:401583Touchdown14–14
PITQ4 14:5664Punt14–14
NEQ4 12:28845Turnover14–14
PITQ4 7:41967Touchdown21–14
NEQ4 2:16845Turnover on downs21–14
PITQ4 1:0300End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/2313921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren18472.60
Kenny Gainwell4164.01
Aaron Rodgers410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Warren56340
Calvin Austin III35341
DK Metcalf34321
Jonnu Smith33230
Kenny Gainwell11100
Pat Freiermuth1360

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye28/3726821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye7456.40
Antonio Gibson7284.00
TreVeyon Henderson11282.50
Rhamondre Stevenson4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry811902
Rhamondre Stevenson33380
Austin Hooper23280
Kayshon Boutte23280
Mack Hollins44270
Stefon Diggs33230
TreVeyon Henderson33190
Kyle Williams1180
DeMario Douglas2570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.59