2022 · Week 2

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

17·14

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitch Trubisky

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

40

Model margin

+2.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.047EPA / play+0.012
  • 41.1%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.006
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.93CPOE+1.33
  • 35.3%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.65
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:271276Field goal3–0
PITQ1 6:42933Turnover3–0
NEQ1 1:3835Turnover3–0
PITQ1 0:421553Field goal3–3
NEQ2 8:35428Punt3–3
PITQ2 6:25620Punt3–3
NEQ2 3:08874Touchdown10–3
PITQ2 0:22419End of half10–3
NEQ3 15:001046Missed field goal10–3
PITQ3 9:17625Field goal10–6
NEQ3 5:44431Punt10–6
NEQ3 3:58310Touchdown17–6
PITQ3 2:47975Touchdown17–14
NEQ4 14:58842Punt17–14
PITQ4 10:4934Punt17–14
NEQ4 9:4038Punt17–14
PITQ4 8:0338Punt17–14
NEQ4 6:331065End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones21/3525211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris15714.71
Rhamondre Stevenson9475.20
Mac Jones760.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor661101
Jakobi Meyers913950
Kendrick Bourne23160
Damien Harris22160
Lil'Jordan Humphrey12110
Rhamondre Stevenson1240
DeVante Parker0200
Hunter Henry0100
Jonnu Smith0300

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky21/3316811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris15493.30
Gunner Olszewski11818.00
Jaylen Warren4153.80
Mitchell Trubisky177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson610570
Najee Harris56400
Chase Claypool46260
George Pickens12230
Pat Freiermuth47221
Jaylen Warren1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

6.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76