Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40
Model margin
+2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play+0.012
- 41.1%Success rate45.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.006
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.93CPOE+1.33
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.5%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.54Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 21/35 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 13 | 95 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 21/33 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76