Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
53
Model margin
+0.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutAlan BranchDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon KingSHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableChris HoganWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDavid HarrisLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDeatrich WiseDEFoot· Limited
- QuestionableEric LeeDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKyle Van NoyLBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableLaAdrian WaddleTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableStephon GilmoreCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTrey FlowersDERib· Limited
- DNPJohnson BademosiCBIllness
- LimitedMalcolm ButlerCBAnkle
Steelers
- OutVance McDonaldTEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCoty SensabaughCBShoulder· Full
- QuestionableJoe HadenCBFibula· Limited
- QuestionableJuJu Smith-SchusterWRHamstring· Limited
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.076
- 49.2%Success rate46.0%
- +0.254EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.49CPOE+3.69
- 40.8%Third-down rate43.8%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 2.52Points / drive2.22
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 15–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:11 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:00 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 5:32 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PIT | Q1 2:12 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 12:15 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q2 9:04 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 79 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| PIT | Q3 8:50 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 16–17 |
| NE | Q3 6:39 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| PIT | Q3 4:31 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| NE | Q3 1:33 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 16–24 |
| PIT | Q3 0:02 | 12 | 46 | Punt | 16–24 |
| NE | Q4 7:38 | 9 | 21 | Field goal | 19–24 |
| PIT | Q4 3:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 19–24 |
| NE | Q4 2:06 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| PIT | Q4 0:56 | 4 | 72 | Turnover | 27–24 |
| NE | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/35 | 298 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 13 | 168 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/30 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 1 |
| James Conner | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 6 | 114 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.71