2023 · Week 14

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Bailey Zappe

21·18

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitchell Trubisky

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

30

Model margin

+6.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.189EPA / play-0.064
  • 38.9%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.226EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.069
  • 5.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.39CPOE-0.21
  • 30.8%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.54
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
NEQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 11:12720Field goal7–3
NEQ1 6:39412Punt7–3
PITQ1 4:4934Punt7–3
NEQ1 3:49528Punt7–3
PITQ1 2:05512Turnover7–3
NEQ2 14:47211Touchdown14–3
PITQ2 14:1432Punt14–3
NEQ2 12:4536Punt14–3
PITQ2 11:1335Punt14–3
NEQ2 9:48459Touchdown21–3
PITQ2 7:38970Touchdown21–10
NEQ2 2:50828Punt21–10
PITQ2 0:1900End of half21–10
PITQ3 15:001132Punt21–10
NEQ3 7:51521Punt21–10
PITQ3 5:1237Punt21–10
NEQ3 3:07412Turnover21–10
PITQ3 0:5849Turnover on downs21–10
NEQ4 14:5438Punt21–10
PITQ4 13:23519Touchdown21–18
NEQ4 11:44520Punt21–18
PITQ4 8:24718Punt21–18
NEQ4 4:5839Punt21–18
PITQ4 2:44622Turnover on downs21–18
NEQ4 1:55314Punt21–18
PITQ4 0:15245End of half21–18

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bailey Zappe19/2824031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott22683.10
Bailey Zappe3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster46900
Ezekiel Elliott78721
Hunter Henry33402
Ty Montgomery12170
Tyquan Thornton35170
Pharaoh Brown1140
Jalen Reagor0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky22/3519011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mitchell Trubisky8303.81
Najee Harris12292.40
Calvin Austin III11212.00
Jaylen Warren7111.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson37571
Jaylen Warren45290
Allen Robinson13210
Najee Harris33190
George Pickens56190
Pat Freiermuth37180
Darnell Washington12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.57