Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
30
Model margin
+6.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.189EPA / play-0.064
- 38.9%Success rate42.3%
- -0.226EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.069
- 5.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.39CPOE-0.21
- 30.8%Third-down rate37.3%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.00Points / drive1.54
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 19/28 | 240 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 68 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 90 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 40 | 2 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 22/35 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.57