2018 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

10·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

55

Model margin

-0.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.102
  • 47.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.112
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.03CPOE+1.39
  • 41.8%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.23
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
PITQ1 15:001270Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 8:40472Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 6:4856Punt7–7
NEQ1 3:06532Punt7–7
PITQ1 1:181070Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 12:01632Punt7–14
PITQ2 8:17553Turnover7–14
NEQ2 6:0135Punt7–14
PITQ2 5:13519Punt7–14
NEQ2 3:03626Punt7–14
PITQ2 0:2100End of half7–14
NEQ3 15:00417Punt7–14
PITQ3 13:00875Missed field goal7–14
NEQ3 8:321557Field goal10–14
PITQ3 0:17525Turnover10–14
NEQ4 13:29958Turnover10–14
PITQ4 7:431261Field goal10–17
NEQ4 2:301169Turnover on downs10–17
PITQ4 0:1400End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3627911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel13594.50
Rex Burkhead4256.30
James White2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman711900
Chris Hogan23681
James White57250
Rob Gronkowski25210
Cordarrelle Patterson33200
Josh Gordon12190
Rex Burkhead33180

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3423522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Samuels191427.50
Stevan Ridley3165.30
Ryan Switzer133.00
Ben Roethlisberger2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington34650
Antonio Brown47491
JuJu Smith-Schuster410400
Jaylen Samuels22300
Eli Rogers44200
Vance McDonald23131
Jesse James1190
Ryan Switzer2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.06