Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
55
Model margin
-0.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.102
- 47.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.112
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.03CPOE+1.39
- 41.8%Third-down rate43.9%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 2.32Points / drive2.23
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/36 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 11 | 90 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/34 | 235 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 19 | 142 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06