2026 · Week 2

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

3·20

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.052
  • 42.3%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.215
  • +0.043EPA / rush-0.200
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.45CPOE+7.12
  • 36.8%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.06
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE
2016 · W7NE @ PIT27–16NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:20446Turnover0–0
PITQ1 11:1734Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:17545Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 8:22735Missed field goal0–7
NEQ1 4:10846Field goal0–10
PITQ2 14:141240Punt0–10
NEQ2 7:24514Punt0–10
PITQ2 5:05822Punt0–10
NEQ2 1:4830Punt0–10
PITQ2 0:40522Field goal3–10
NEQ3 15:00434Turnover3–10
PITQ3 12:49824Punt3–10
NEQ3 9:05956Missed field goal3–10
PITQ3 3:5037Punt3–10
NEQ3 2:12470Field goal3–13
PITQ3 0:4341Opp touchdown3–20
PITQ4 13:373-6Punt3–20
NEQ4 12:03512Punt3–20
PITQ4 9:531175Turnover3–20
NEQ4 5:0935Punt3–20
PITQ4 3:2338Punt3–20
NEQ4 2:0132End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3918701
Mason Rudolph0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren11433.90
Rico Dowdle7223.10
Travis Homer2168.00
Aaron Rodgers155.00
Mason Rudolph133.00
Pat Freiermuth122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Germie Bernard48350
Jaylen Warren24340
Pat Freiermuth45320
Roman Wilson56280
DK Metcalf49270
Rico Dowdle22220
Darnell Washington1270
Ben Skowronek1120

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye14/2220801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
TreVeyon Henderson16764.81
Rhamondre Stevenson6437.20
Drake Maye4174.30
Corey Kiner200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs34960
Hunter Henry35400
Eli Raridon11300
Mack Hollins22180
Kyle Williams12100
DeMario Douglas1290
Reggie Gilliam1240
Rhamondre Stevenson1230
Efton Chism III11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+2.94