Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.251EPA / play-0.092
- 33.8%Success rate40.8%
- -0.251EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.451
- 6.2%Explosive rate1.4%
- +1.23CPOE+5.97
- 25.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.00Points / drive1.11
- 1.5%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
35.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-1.97