2002 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play-0.056
- 38.4%Success rate41.7%
- -0.052EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 43.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.06Points / drive1.22
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 14/36 | 187 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 7 | 15 | 138 | 1 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 28/40 | 327 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 7 | 8 | 131 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 7 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Stephens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.32