2002 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

23·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Shane Matthews

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.092EPA / play-0.056
  • 38.4%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.052EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.083
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.22
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.3%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–WAS
WASQ1 15:001149Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 8:411150Field goal3–3
WASQ1 2:59521Turnover3–3
ARIQ1 0:5528Touchdown10–3
WASQ1 0:101475Touchdown10–10
ARIQ2 10:1033Punt10–10
WASQ2 9:0038Punt10–10
ARIQ2 7:15947Field goal13–10
WASQ2 3:13744Turnover on downs13–10
ARIQ2 0:3930Punt13–10
WASQ2 0:0600End of half13–10
ARIQ3 15:0038Punt13–10
WASQ3 13:26771Touchdown13–17
ARIQ3 9:51439Field goal16–17
WASQ3 8:14470Touchdown16–24
ARIQ3 6:28828Missed field goal16–24
WASQ3 0:50858Touchdown16–31
ARIQ4 12:08342Touchdown23–31
WASQ4 10:39416Punt23–31
ARIQ4 7:59732Punt23–31
WASQ4 5:39727Punt23–31
ARIQ4 2:5330Punt23–31
WASQ4 2:1535Punt23–31
ARIQ4 1:0410Turnover23–31
WASQ4 0:5600End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer14/3618711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones17543.20
Jake Plummer2115.51
Frank Sanders155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston7151381
MarTay Jenkins14180
Freddie Jones15100
Thomas Jones3570
Frank Sanders0100
Bryan Gilmore0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews28/4032731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis261044.01
Derrius Thompson11313.00
Kenny Watson155.00
Shane Matthews400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner781311
Stephen Davis710460
Derrius Thompson44451
Kevin Lockett34341
Kenny Watson34220
Zeron Flemister12190
Chris Doering11130
Jacquez Green0200
Leonard Stephens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.32