Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.269
- 44.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.424
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- 44.5%Third-down rate33.9%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.70Points / drive0.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:40 | 15 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:38 | 17 | 96 | Opp touchdown | 13–1 |
| IND | Q2 7:34 | 10 | 65 | Missed field goal | 13–1 |
| JAX | Q2 2:00 | 6 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 20–1 |
| IND | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 20–1 |
| JAX | Q2 0:33 | 2 | 30 | Missed field goal | 20–1 |
| IND | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 20–1 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 20–1 |
| JAX | Q3 12:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–1 |
| IND | Q3 10:44 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 20–1 |
| JAX | Q3 9:35 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 20–4 |
| IND | Q3 7:39 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 20–4 |
| JAX | Q3 6:50 | 4 | 35 | Opp touchdown | 26–5 |
| IND | Q3 5:20 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 26–5 |
| IND | Q3 3:50 | 3 | 19 | Touchdown | 33–5 |
| JAX | Q3 2:57 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 33–5 |
| IND | Q3 1:24 | 11 | 48 | Touchdown | 40–5 |
| JAX | Q4 11:26 | 15 | 75 | Opp touchdown | 46–7 |
| IND | Q4 4:11 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 46–7 |
| JAX | Q4 1:02 | 7 | 34 | End of half | 46–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 22/35 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 19/31 | 211 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 83 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 6 | 7 | 84 | 2 |
| Bobby Shaw | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Micah Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.71