Closing spread
CLE -2
Total
36
Model margin
+4.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play+0.007
- 47.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.050
- +0.083EPA / rush-0.064
- 11.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- 41.1%Third-down rate40.7%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.29Points / drive1.59
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 13:30 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 12:36 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q1 8:21 | 10 | 28 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| KC | Q1 3:16 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 7–6 |
| CLE | Q2 13:07 | 2 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| KC | Q2 12:19 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| CLE | Q2 8:41 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| KC | Q2 5:38 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 14–20 |
| CLE | Q2 2:26 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–20 |
| KC | Q2 1:19 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–20 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| KC | Q3 7:09 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| CLE | Q3 2:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–27 |
| KC | Q3 0:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CLE | Q4 14:46 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 17–30 |
| KC | Q4 11:19 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–30 |
| CLE | Q4 9:06 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 30–30 |
| KC | Q4 8:12 | 1 | 15 | Touchdown | 31–30 |
| CLE | Q4 8:05 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–36 |
| KC | Q4 5:52 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 37–36 |
| CLE | Q4 3:05 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 37–39 |
| KC | Q4 0:29 | 3 | 40 | Field goal | 40–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/29 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 4 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 6 | 120 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 27/39 | 326 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1/1 | 33 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| William Green | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 9 | 11 | 151 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 8 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Andre King | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| R.J. Bowers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| William Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.90