Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.129
- 45.1%Success rate40.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.089
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.197
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 43.6%Third-down rate33.7%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.93Points / drive1.35
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:42 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:33 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:15 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 4:30 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 2:34 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 1:03 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CHI | Q2 13:32 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIN | Q2 9:19 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CHI | Q2 3:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 19–10 |
| MIN | Q2 1:01 | 1 | 33 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:55 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:17 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 20–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| MIN | Q3 10:28 | 10 | 32 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| CHI | Q3 5:21 | 12 | 83 | Missed field goal | 20–13 |
| MIN | Q4 13:31 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| CHI | Q4 9:07 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| MIN | Q4 6:13 | 7 | 23 | Turnover | 23–20 |
| CHI | Q4 2:34 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
| MIN | Q4 0:28 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 23–27 |
| CHI | Q4 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 23–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 16/28 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 61 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 10 | 58 | 1 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 20/33 | 297 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 19 | 45 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 8 | 12 | 198 | 1 |
| Dez White | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61