2002 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

14·30

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapPatriots
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.000
  • 43.3%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.69
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NE
PITQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
NEQ1 13:5236Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:5710Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:51711Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 10:571151Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 4:50718Punt7–7
PITQ1 0:56831Punt7–7
NEQ2 11:22522Punt7–7
PITQ2 9:37956Missed field goal7–7
NEQ2 5:34844Field goal7–10
PITQ2 2:2351Punt7–10
NEQ2 0:25314End of half7–10
NEQ3 15:00474Touchdown7–17
PITQ3 13:27214Turnover7–17
NEQ3 13:071170Touchdown7–24
PITQ3 7:0344Turnover7–24
NEQ3 4:58832Field goal7–27
PITQ3 2:0836Punt7–27
NEQ3 1:14415Punt7–27
PITQ4 14:103-1Punt7–27
NEQ4 12:31632Field goal7–30
PITQ4 9:32722Turnover7–30
NEQ4 6:2810Turnover7–30
PITQ4 6:20411Punt7–30
NEQ4 4:4235Punt7–30
PITQ4 2:551386Touchdown14–30

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart24/3724213
Antwaan Randle El1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis8354.40
Kordell Stewart8162.01
Amos Zereoue7142.00
Antwaan Randle El199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward810901
Antwaan Randle El68870
Mark Bruener44250
Amos Zereoue33150
Plaxico Burress16110
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala1160
Terance Mathis1440
Jerame Tuman0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4329430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith17603.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch69831
David Patten48700
Donald Hayes35541
Cameron Cleeland66400
Troy Brown67220
Christian Fauria22111
J.R. Redmond1230
Antowain Smith0100
Daniel Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.60