Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.000
- 43.3%Success rate43.6%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.3%
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.1%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.71Points / drive1.69
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 24/37 | 242 | 1 | 3 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 10 | 90 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/43 | 294 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 6 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| David Patten | 4 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60