Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
37
Model margin
-0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/31 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Farmer | 2 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.96
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.