Closing spread
SF -4
Total
39
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play+0.008
- 45.2%Success rate41.7%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.151
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.177
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- 52.5%Third-down rate38.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 1.83Points / drive1.46
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/26 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 28/45 | 342 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 29 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 9 | 11 | 134 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 5 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80