2002 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

24·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Trent Dilfer

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.092EPA / play+0.035
  • 38.4%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.052EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.070
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.60
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00636Turnover on downs0–0
ARIQ1 12:12422Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:57457Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 9:091165Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 3:051058Turnover3–3
ARIQ2 12:57627Punt3–3
SEAQ2 10:161478Touchdown3–10
ARIQ2 4:1033Punt3–10
SEAQ2 3:0338Punt3–10
ARIQ2 1:30610Punt3–10
SEAQ2 0:071-1End of half3–10
ARIQ3 15:00684Touchdown10–10
SEAQ3 11:59619Punt10–10
ARIQ3 9:59537Turnover10–10
SEAQ3 7:15716Turnover on downs10–10
ARIQ3 5:0433Punt10–10
SEAQ3 3:111246Field goal16–13
ARIQ4 12:5200Touchdown17–13
SEAQ4 12:41423Punt17–13
ARIQ4 10:541390Touchdown24–13
SEAQ4 3:18613Turnover on downs24–13
ARIQ4 2:0536Punt24–13
SEAQ4 1:00673End of half24–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer10/2210711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones241737.21
Marcel Shipp8394.90
Jake Plummer22713.50
MarTay Jenkins11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston48490
Thomas Jones22180
MarTay Jenkins14170
Freddie Jones13100
Steve Bush1290
Frank Sanders1341

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer29/4735210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander17372.20
Maurice Morris7355.00
Koren Robinson166.00
Matt Hasselbeck111.00
Trent Dilfer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson10131740
Koren Robinson512820
Shaun Alexander66460
Itula Mili46181
Jerramy Stevens25160
Maurice Morris1160
Bobby Engram0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41