Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.035
- 38.4%Success rate44.0%
- -0.052EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- 43.6%Third-down rate43.0%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.06Points / drive1.60
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 10/22 | 107 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 173 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 29/47 | 352 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 10 | 13 | 174 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 5 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41