2002 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Gus Frerotte

7·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Kelly Holcomb

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

+9.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.063EPA / play+0.007
  • 43.4%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.085EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.064
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.04Points / drive1.59
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
  • +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:59552Field goal0–3
CINQ1 9:58931Punt0–3
CLEQ1 5:5631Punt0–3
CINQ1 4:03832Punt0–3
CLEQ1 0:391265Turnover on downs0–3
CINQ2 9:4962Punt0–3
CLEQ2 7:31867Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 3:191354Turnover0–10
CLEQ2 0:3028Touchdown0–17
CINQ2 0:2100End of half0–17
CLEQ3 15:00820Punt0–17
CINQ3 10:58741Punt0–17
CLEQ3 7:49520Punt0–17
CINQ3 4:251041Turnover on downs0–17
CLEQ4 14:063-2Punt0–17
CINQ4 11:3810Turnover0–17
CLEQ4 11:2836Field goal0–20
CINQ4 10:031176Touchdown7–20
CLEQ4 6:27929Punt7–20
CINQ4 3:181151Turnover7–20
CLEQ4 0:0900End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte26/4723913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon221084.90
Rudi Johnson5244.80
Peter Warrick11111.00
Gus Frerotte284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Dillon88670
Chad Johnson48581
T.J. Houshmandzadeh56580
Michael Westbrook210210
Rudi Johnson35160
Ron Dugans2390
Peter Warrick1230

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kelly Holcomb17/3019820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White8384.80
William Green17362.10
Kelly Holcomb210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson47501
Jamel White33420
Quincy Morgan24420
Andre Davis46371
Mark Campbell26190
Steve Heiden1180
William Green0200
Darnell Sanders1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.6%5.2%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.28