Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+9.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.007
- 43.4%Success rate42.2%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.064
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- 39.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.04Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 26/47 | 239 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 8 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 17/30 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| William Green | 17 | 36 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 4 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| William Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.28