2002 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Mike McMahon

7·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.177
  • 34.3%Success rate35.3%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback-0.144
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.219
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.1%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate29.3%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 0.96Points / drive0.82
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.112

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. CAR are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4DET @ CAR26–32CAR
2023 · W5CAR @ DET24–42DET
2022 · W16DET @ CAR23–37CAR
2020 · W11DET @ CAR0–20CAR
2018 · W11CAR @ DET19–20DET
2017 · W5CAR @ DET27–24CAR
2014 · W2DET @ CAR7–24CAR
2011 · W11CAR @ DET35–49DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CAR
DETQ1 15:001029Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:04453Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 8:00621Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:01629Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:5031Punt0–0
CARQ1 0:0000Missed field goal0–0
CARQ2 15:00631Missed field goal0–0
DETQ2 10:54421Punt0–0
CARQ2 9:14412Punt0–0
DETQ2 7:26410Turnover0–0
CARQ2 5:36419Field goal0–3
DETQ2 3:273-5Punt0–3
CARQ2 2:2136Punt0–3
DETQ2 1:413-16Punt0–3
CARQ2 1:02569Touchdown0–10
DETQ2 0:161-8Turnover0–10
CARQ3 15:00519Punt0–10
DETQ3 11:31756Touchdown7–10
CARQ3 8:21568Touchdown7–17
DETQ3 6:4432Opp touchdown7–24
CARQ3 5:4900Opp touchdown7–24
DETQ3 5:4934Punt7–24
CARQ3 4:463-3Punt7–24
DETQ3 2:0731Punt7–24
CARQ3 0:271165Touchdown7–31
DETQ4 9:4359Punt7–31
CARQ4 8:0836Punt7–31
DETQ4 6:1935Punt7–31
CARQ4 5:2737Punt7–31
DETQ4 3:443-8Punt7–31
CARQ4 2:2534Punt7–31
DETQ4 0:2710End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon9/239501
Joey Harrington3/71101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart12534.40
Mike McMahon3134.31
Aveion Cason362.00
Stephen Trejo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scotty Anderson26310
Mikhael Ricks35280
Aveion Cason23240
Az-Zahir Hakim16150
James Stewart3450
Bill Schroeder0100
Larry Foster0300

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete21/3231010
Chris Weinke0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith20603.02
Nick Goings252.50
Rodney Peete100.00
Dee Brown3-2-0.70
Steve Smith1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Muhsin Muhammad8111071
Lamar Smith34770
Steve Smith46710
Wesley Walls12200
Isaac Byrd1190
Kris Mangum1370
Nick Goings2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.06