Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.177
- 34.3%Success rate35.3%
- -0.156EPA / dropback-0.144
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.219
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- 29.8%Third-down rate29.3%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 0.96Points / drive0.82
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. CAR are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 9/23 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 3/7 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 21/32 | 310 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.06