2002 · Week 2

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

20·35

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSaints
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.006
  • 43.5%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.94
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.005

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16NO @ GB0–34GB
2023 · W3NO @ GB17–18GB
2021 · W1GB @ NO3–38NO
2020 · W3GB @ NO37–30GB
2017 · W7NO @ GB26–17NO
2014 · W8GB @ NO23–44NO
2012 · W4NO @ GB27–28GB
2011 · W1NO @ GB34–42GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–NO
NOQ1 15:001173Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:19947Turnover0–7
NOQ1 4:3639Punt0–7
GBQ1 2:541481Field goal3–7
NOQ2 10:23416Punt3–7
GBQ2 8:1215Turnover3–7
NOQ2 8:05521Touchdown3–14
GBQ2 5:1234Punt3–14
NOQ2 4:0110Turnover3–14
GBQ2 3:563-8Punt3–14
NOQ2 3:19452Touchdown3–21
GBQ2 2:0339Punt3–21
NOQ2 1:11233Turnover9–21
GBQ2 0:48114Touchdown10–21
NOQ2 0:4000End of half10–21
GBQ3 15:0038Opp touchdown10–28
NOQ3 13:5300Opp touchdown10–28
GBQ3 13:53430Punt10–28
NOQ3 12:031675Missed field goal10–28
GBQ3 3:02671Touchdown17–28
NOQ3 0:3137Punt17–28
GBQ4 14:43628Turnover17–28
NOQ4 12:0431Punt17–28
GBQ4 10:341261Field goal20–28
NOQ4 4:31473Touchdown20–35
GBQ4 2:0047Turnover on downs20–35
NOQ4 0:5300End of half20–35

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre29/4427021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green17814.80
Brett Favre3155.00
Rondell Mealey1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn910811
Ahman Green66530
Donald Driver44511
Javon Walker16270
Bubba Franks14130
Robert Ferguson12120
Rondell Mealey33100
David Martin2340

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks16/2821722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deuce McAllister211235.92
Aaron Brooks5132.60
James Fenderson11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn691200
Donte' Stallworth44591
David Sloan12200
Jerome Pathon27121
Deuce McAllister1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81