Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.006
- 43.5%Success rate39.0%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- 38.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.67Points / drive1.94
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 55.8 points. NO are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 29/44 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 9 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 6 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Martin | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/28 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 123 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 6 | 9 | 120 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81