Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
34
Model margin
+4.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 10:45 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:54 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 4:19 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:27 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q1 2:03 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:49 | 7 | -8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 11:22 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 9:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 7:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 5:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 3:31 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:29 | 6 | 45 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 1:18 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:35 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 8:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 7:13 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 4:18 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 3:49 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q3 1:56 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q4 12:43 | 2 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q4 11:40 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–24 |
| HOU | Q4 11:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q4 9:52 | 7 | 16 | Punt | 3–24 |
| HOU | Q4 5:53 | 3 | 26 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–24 |
| HOU | Q4 2:35 | 9 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 6/25 | 87 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.