Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
34
Model margin
+4.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 6/25 | 87 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.