Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+7.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play+0.161
- 40.3%Success rate47.5%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.224
- -0.424EPA / rush+0.083
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 0.22Points / drive2.29
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:27 | 15 | 98 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 0:53 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q2 11:28 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| KC | Q2 8:57 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| JAX | Q2 6:41 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 6–6 |
| KC | Q2 2:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–6 |
| JAX | Q2 1:45 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 9–6 |
| JAX | Q3 12:37 | 13 | 64 | Turnover | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 4:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–6 |
| JAX | Q3 4:38 | 5 | 14 | Missed field goal | 9–6 |
| KC | Q3 1:45 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 9–6 |
| JAX | Q4 13:27 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 9–6 |
| KC | Q4 9:50 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 9–9 |
| JAX | Q4 6:57 | 2 | 85 | Touchdown | 16–9 |
| KC | Q4 5:59 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 22–9 |
| JAX | Q4 3:20 | 1 | 63 | Touchdown | 23–9 |
| KC | Q4 3:09 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| JAX | Q4 2:35 | 6 | 12 | End of half | 23–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/36 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Johnson | 4 | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/31 | 199 | 1 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Boerigter | 1 | 1 | 51 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.42