Closing spread
PK
Total
47
Model margin
+1.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.016
- 45.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.138
- 11.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- 37.0%Third-down rate44.5%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.85Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:34 | 8 | 31 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:51 | 7 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:18 | 6 | 40 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q2 14:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| IND | Q2 12:21 | 14 | 79 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| MIA | Q2 4:03 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:53 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–3 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 13:22 | 6 | 50 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| IND | Q3 9:51 | 5 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 7:25 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 21–3 |
| IND | Q3 2:49 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 21–3 |
| MIA | Q3 0:47 | 7 | 34 | Missed field goal | 21–3 |
| IND | Q4 12:40 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| MIA | Q4 9:11 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 21–10 |
| IND | Q4 6:13 | 14 | 61 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| MIA | Q4 2:54 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 21–13 |
| IND | Q4 2:15 | 12 | 78 | End of half | 21–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/18 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 24 | 132 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/45 | 289 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 138 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 11 | 15 | 144 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 8 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75