Closing spread
STL -12
Total
46
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. STL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:54 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 7:43 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:44 | 8 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:12 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:29 | 2 | -6 | Opp touchdown | 17–0 |
| NYG | Q2 9:44 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 17–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:44 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 2:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 1:38 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NYG | Q3 11:44 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| LA | Q3 6:08 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 3:53 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| LA | Q3 3:08 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| NYG | Q3 2:21 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| LA | Q4 11:47 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 23–21 |
| NYG | Q4 8:24 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 26–21 |
| LA | Q4 4:19 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 26–21 |
| NYG | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 26–21 |
| LA | Q4 1:50 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 26–21 |
| NYG | Q4 1:43 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 26–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/26 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.