Closing spread
STL -12
Total
46
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. STL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 22/26 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 7 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 5 | 97 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.08
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.