Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 18/34 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 10 | 92 | 2 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.