Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:43 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:00 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q1 1:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 11:54 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 8:45 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 7:22 | 15 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 6 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:50 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LV | Q3 7:45 | 11 | 72 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| PIT | Q3 2:03 | 5 | 20 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| LV | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 26–17 |
| LV | Q4 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| PIT | Q4 14:46 | 1 | 21 | Turnover | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 14:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–17 |
| PIT | Q4 13:10 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 11:37 | 6 | 18 | Missed field goal | 27–17 |
| PIT | Q4 8:13 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 7:38 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 27–17 |
| PIT | Q4 5:31 | 5 | 56 | Turnover | 27–17 |
| LV | Q4 3:57 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 30–17 |
| PIT | Q4 1:01 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 30–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 18/34 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 10 | 92 | 2 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.