2002 · Week 2 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.056
- 43.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.81Points / drive1.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/38 | 292 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 6 | 7 | 107 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 10/22 | 62 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 6/9 | 57 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 6 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Stephens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.78