2002 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

37·7

Commanders

Washington

QB Shane Matthews

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

44

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.056
  • 43.3%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00829Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:13680Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 8:10511Punt7–0
PHIQ1 5:501060Touchdown14–0
WASQ1 0:09719Turnover14–0
PHIQ2 13:193-7Opp touchdown14–7
WASQ2 11:5200Opp touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 11:521072Field goal17–7
WASQ2 6:3528Turnover17–7
PHIQ2 5:2738Field goal20–7
WASQ2 3:541038Turnover on downs20–7
PHIQ2 0:56530Field goal23–7
PHIQ3 15:00634Punt23–7
WASQ3 12:2943Punt23–7
PHIQ3 10:54245Touchdown30–7
WASQ3 10:04524Punt30–7
PHIQ3 7:5036Punt30–7
WASQ3 6:1837Punt30–7
PHIQ3 4:2333Punt30–7
WASQ3 2:47425Turnover30–7
PHIQ3 0:30993Touchdown37–7
WASQ4 9:52515Punt37–7
PHIQ4 6:27927Turnover on downs37–7
WASQ4 1:0820End of half37–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/3829220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorsey Levens66510.81
Duce Staley15553.70
Donovan McNabb5367.21
Brian Westbrook2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Thrash671071
Duce Staley78570
Todd Pinkston34360
Antonio Freeman35350
Brian Westbrook11200
Jeff Thomason22181
Chad Lewis13140
Freddie Mitchell1360
Cecil Martin1110
Mike Bartrum0100
Dorsey Levens11-20

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews10/226201
Danny Wuerffel6/95701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis12534.40
Shane Matthews2168.00
Kenny Watson3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner49630
Stephen Davis67230
Derrius Thompson1290
Kevin Lockett1250
Kenny Watson2550
Chris Doering0200
Jacquez Green0100
Leonard Stephens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.78