2002 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

21·14

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapVikings
  • -0.177EPA / play+0.060
  • 35.3%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.219EPA / rush+0.071
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.93
  • 3.8%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–MIN
CARQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:00639Turnover0–0
CARQ1 7:13950Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 2:0223Turnover0–0
CARQ1 1:1831Turnover0–0
MINQ1 0:0000Touchdown0–0
MINQ2 15:00417Touchdown0–7
CARQ2 12:58412Turnover0–7
MINQ2 11:2131Punt0–7
CARQ2 9:36928Punt0–7
MINQ2 4:3332Punt0–7
CARQ2 2:57428Punt0–7
MINQ2 1:10427Punt0–7
CARQ2 0:40216End of half0–7
MINQ3 15:0046Punt0–7
CARQ3 12:5034Punt0–7
MINQ3 10:4538Punt0–7
CARQ3 8:34427Punt0–7
MINQ3 6:5621Turnover0–7
CARQ3 6:01228Touchdown7–7
MINQ3 5:14628Punt7–7
CARQ3 2:06680Touchdown14–7
MINQ4 13:28220Turnover14–7
CARQ4 12:36853Touchdown21–7
MINQ4 7:54994Touchdown21–14
CARQ4 3:2938Punt21–14
MINQ4 2:1644Turnover on downs21–14
CARQ4 1:4935Missed field goal21–14
MINQ4 0:0410Turnover21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete20/3022112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith301545.12
Nick Goings3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith58811
Muhsin Muhammad67630
Wesley Walls44360
Isaac Byrd13190
Lamar Smith22120
Kris Mangum0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper19/3019114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper4328.00
Michael Bennett9232.61
Moe Williams4164.00
Doug Chapman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Moe Williams44660
D'Wayne Bates47500
Michael Bennett33330
Randy Moss410160
Derrick Alexander12120
Hunter Goodwin22100
Chris Walsh1141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.24