Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play+0.060
- 35.3%Success rate45.1%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.219EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- 29.3%Third-down rate43.6%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 0.82Points / drive1.93
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. MIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 20/30 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 30 | 154 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Nick Goings | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/30 | 191 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 10 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.24