Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.043
- 42.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.095
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- 40.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.58
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 36/50 | 326 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| William Green | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Davis | 5 | 7 | 99 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 9 | 12 | 90 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 9 | 14 | 38 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| William Green | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/23 | 107 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 23 | 59 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| John Simon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43