2002 · Week 3

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

31·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapTitans
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.043
  • 42.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.095
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.58
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 47 points. TEN are 8-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CLE @ TEN27–24CLE
2025 · W14TEN @ CLE31–29TEN
2023 · W3TEN @ CLE3–27CLE
2020 · W13CLE @ TEN41–35CLE
2019 · W1TEN @ CLE43–13TEN
2017 · W7TEN @ CLE12–9TEN
2016 · W6CLE @ TEN26–28TEN
2015 · W2TEN @ CLE14–28CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–TEN
CLEQ1 15:00972Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 10:5539Punt7–0
CLEQ1 8:353-4Punt7–0
TENQ1 7:031228Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 1:4039Punt7–7
TENQ2 14:5237Punt7–7
CLEQ2 12:5015Turnover7–7
TENQ2 12:37731Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 8:55827Missed field goal7–14
TENQ2 4:3636Punt7–14
CLEQ2 3:1030Opp touchdown7–21
TENQ2 2:5600Opp touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 2:56830Punt7–21
TENQ2 0:341-1End of half7–21
TENQ3 15:0039Punt7–21
CLEQ3 12:51326Turnover7–21
TENQ3 11:59611Punt7–21
CLEQ3 9:31742Punt7–21
TENQ3 5:31627Opp touchdown14–21
CLEQ3 1:2500Opp touchdown14–21
TENQ3 1:2531Punt14–21
CLEQ3 0:25618Punt14–21
TENQ4 12:55946Punt14–21
TENQ4 6:44314Touchdown14–28
CLEQ4 5:061275Touchdown21–28
TENQ4 2:3500Touchdown21–28
CLEQ4 2:35938Touchdown28–28
TENQ4 0:1200End of half28–28
CLEOT765Field goal31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch36/5032631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White9434.80
William Green8263.30
Tim Couch3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Davis57992
Kevin Johnson912900
Quincy Morgan59400
Jamel White914380
Dennis Northcutt33241
Mark Campbell22110
Steve Heiden11110
Aaron Shea1180
William Green1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair15/2310720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George23592.61
Steve McNair5173.40
Mike Green492.30
John Simon111.00
Greg Comella100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie George57350
Derrick Mason37310
John Simon22151
Greg Comella22130
Kevin Dyson1271
Frank Wycheck2260
Justin McCareins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.43