2002 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

13·44

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -10

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.190EPA / play+0.004
  • 37.2%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.193EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 23.8%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 0.79Points / drive1.81
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00520Field goal6–3
DALQ1 12:4500Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 12:33760Turnover7–3
DALQ1 9:14540Turnover7–3
PHIQ1 6:583-8Punt7–3
DALQ1 5:49851Field goal10–3
PHIQ1 1:43530Punt10–3
DALQ2 14:32424Punt10–3
PHIQ2 12:30775Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 9:04417Punt10–10
PHIQ2 6:44516Touchdown10–17
DALQ2 5:21626Punt10–17
PHIQ2 2:001079Field goal10–20
DALQ3 15:0039Punt10–20
PHIQ3 13:40265Touchdown10–27
DALQ3 12:56714Turnover10–27
PHIQ3 11:12225Touchdown10–34
DALQ3 11:011068Field goal13–34
PHIQ3 6:551775Touchdown13–41
DALQ4 13:411-4Turnover13–41
PHIQ4 13:2523Turnover13–41
DALQ4 12:45616Punt13–41
PHIQ4 9:3038Punt13–41
DALQ4 7:5137Turnover13–41
PHIQ4 6:253-1Field goal13–44
DALQ4 4:281036End of half13–44

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter21/3520101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith11524.70
Antonio Bryant12424.00
Michael Wiley4205.00
Troy Hambrick5112.20
Quincy Carter3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway710700
Antonio Bryant410350
Emmitt Smith23310
Tony McGee22270
Darnay Scott33230
Reggie Swinton33150
James Whalen0100
Michael Wiley0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3728730
Brian Westbrook1/12510
Koy Detmer1/2-300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donovan McNabb66711.21
Duce Staley11413.70
James Thrash23316.50
David Akers11010.00
Koy Detmer133.00
Brian Westbrook400.00
Dorsey Levens1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman681181
James Thrash68801
Todd Pinkston56482
Duce Staley34240
Chad Lewis36210
Brian Westbrook11130
Mike Bartrum1180
Cecil Martin0100
Dorsey Levens14-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.06
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.90