Closing spread
PHI -10
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play+0.004
- 37.2%Success rate43.3%
- -0.193EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- 23.8%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 0.79Points / drive1.81
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 21/35 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/37 | 287 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1/1 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1/2 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 67 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| David Akers | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 8 | 118 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 5 | 6 | 48 | 2 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Bartrum | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.06
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.90