2002 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

37·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.148
  • 43.5%Success rate34.3%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.156
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.67Points / drive0.96
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:2630Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:2700Opp touchdown0–7
GBQ1 12:27628Turnover0–7
DETQ1 9:33612Opp touchdown7–7
GBQ1 7:1700Opp touchdown7–7
DETQ1 7:1734Punt7–7
GBQ1 6:101087Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 14:5638Turnover14–7
GBQ2 13:32327Turnover14–7
DETQ2 12:0530Punt14–7
GBQ2 11:0710Turnover14–7
DETQ2 10:563-5Field goal14–10
GBQ2 10:001153Field goal17–10
DETQ2 5:15464Touchdown17–17
GBQ2 3:1332Punt17–17
DETQ2 1:48626Turnover17–17
GBQ3 15:001277Touchdown24–17
DETQ3 7:56520Punt24–17
GBQ3 5:52423Punt24–17
DETQ3 3:4629Turnover24–17
GBQ3 2:59546Touchdown31–17
DETQ3 1:3033Punt31–17
GBQ3 0:111154Field goal34–17
DETQ4 10:27524Touchdown34–24
GBQ4 8:23840Punt34–24
DETQ4 3:391083Touchdown34–31
GBQ4 1:3736Field goal37–31
DETQ4 1:15414Turnover37–31
GBQ4 0:3000End of half37–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre31/4735731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najeh Davenport22843.80
Rondell Mealey571.40
Tony Fisher351.70
Brett Favre1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver59941
Bubba Franks99621
Terry Glenn47550
Robert Ferguson24451
Najeh Davenport46310
Rondell Mealey35240
Javon Walker12200
Tony Fisher11110
Karsten Bailey13100
David Martin1150

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington15/3518224

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart14886.30
Lamont Warren100.00
Az-Zahir Hakim1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart23561
Lamont Warren37431
Az-Zahir Hakim512410
Scotty Anderson23210
Mikhael Ricks1770
Larry Foster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.53