Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.148
- 43.5%Success rate34.3%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- 38.0%Third-down rate29.8%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.67Points / drive0.96
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 31/47 | 357 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeh Davenport | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 9 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 15/35 | 182 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 2 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 5 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53