2002 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

23·3

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

IND -10.5

Total

38

Model margin

+0.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.226
  • 44.3%Success rate33.0%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.307
  • 7.7%Explosive rate5.8%
  • 44.5%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
  • 1.70Points / drive0.66
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:4846Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:49846Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:05780Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 2:2333Punt7–0
INDQ1 1:1518Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 1:0520Turnover7–0
INDQ1 0:16533Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 12:22858Missed field goal10–0
INDQ2 8:163-4Punt10–0
HOUQ2 6:2234Punt10–0
INDQ2 4:52746Field goal13–0
HOUQ2 1:2238Punt13–0
INDQ2 0:181-1End of half13–0
INDQ3 15:00642Missed field goal13–0
HOUQ3 10:571256Field goal13–3
INDQ3 4:52820Punt13–3
HOUQ3 1:3634Punt13–3
INDQ4 14:50737Turnover13–3
HOUQ4 11:3168Punt13–3
INDQ4 8:05869Touchdown20–3
HOUQ4 4:063-5Turnover20–3
INDQ4 3:1833Field goal23–3
HOUQ4 1:11513End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/2827220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James25883.50
Peyton Manning200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison891100
Reggie Wayne34531
Qadry Ismail25391
Edgerrin James44290
Marcus Pollard24250
Jermaine Wiggins1180
Joe Dean Davenport1180

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr12/229901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Wells14936.60
James Allen11272.50
David Carr4174.30
Corey Bradford1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JaJuan Dawson34320
James Allen33250
Avion Black13140
Jonathan Wells22140
Jabar Gaffney2480
Corey Bradford1260
Rod Rutledge0200
Jarrod Baxter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.04