Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.226
- 44.3%Success rate33.0%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.307
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.8%
- 44.5%Third-down rate25.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.70Points / drive0.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/28 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 12/22 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 0 |
| James Allen | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04