Closing spread
NE -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play-0.000
- 47.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.083EPA / rush-0.064
- 11.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.29Points / drive1.69
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/25 | 149 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 30 | 180 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 7 | 41 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Billy Baber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 39/54 | 410 | 4 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 92 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 16 | 21 | 176 | 1 |
| David Patten | 7 | 10 | 108 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 6 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39