2002 · Week 3

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

38·41

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NE -8.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.161EPA / play-0.000
  • 47.5%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.224EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.083EPA / rush-0.064
  • 11.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 41.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.69
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–7 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15KC @ NE27–17KC
2020 · W4NE @ KC10–26KC
2019 · W14KC @ NE23–16KC
2018 · playoffsNE @ KC37–31NE
2018 · W6KC @ NE40–43NE
2017 · W1KC @ NE42–27KC
2015 · playoffsKC @ NE20–27NE
2014 · W4NE @ KC14–41KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NE
NEQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:5061Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:584-1Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:51837Field goal3–0
NEQ1 2:1533Turnover3–0
KCQ1 0:43326Touchdown10–0
NEQ2 14:5631Punt10–0
KCQ2 13:263-1Punt10–0
NEQ2 11:37885Touchdown10–6
KCQ2 6:5710Turnover10–6
NEQ2 6:381139Punt10–6
KCQ2 1:4933Punt10–6
NEQ2 0:56527Field goal10–9
KCQ2 0:0500End of half10–9
KCQ3 15:00437Touchdown17–9
NEQ3 13:001171Touchdown17–17
KCQ3 7:45640Punt17–17
NEQ3 4:32528Punt17–17
KCQ3 2:19317Turnover17–17
NEQ3 1:03456Touchdown17–24
KCQ4 14:55114Turnover17–24
NEQ4 14:47339Touchdown17–31
KCQ4 13:23862Touchdown24–31
NEQ4 9:23675Touchdown24–38
KCQ4 6:10659Touchdown31–38
NEQ4 4:373-2Punt31–38
KCQ4 2:301154Touchdown38–38
NEOT853Field goal38–41

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green16/2514932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes301806.02
Dante Hall23417.00
Trent Green273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton26440
Eddie Kennison47412
Priest Holmes55181
Tony Gonzalez12170
Dante Hall11120
Billy Baber1170
Mike Cloud0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady39/5441041
Kevin Faulk0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith16925.81
Tom Brady122.00
Kevin Faulk1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown16211761
David Patten7101081
Deion Branch68330
Kevin Faulk11231
Daniel Graham12181
Donald Hayes23100
Christian Fauria1180
Cameron Cleeland1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.39