Closing spread
NO -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.129
- 39.0%Success rate40.0%
- +0.038EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.197
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- 40.9%Third-down rate33.7%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.94Points / drive1.35
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.005EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:57 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:37 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 7:36 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 5:57 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NO | Q1 2:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CHI | Q1 1:40 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| NO | Q2 13:35 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CHI | Q2 13:17 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| NO | Q2 11:47 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| CHI | Q2 7:21 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| NO | Q2 7:16 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| CHI | Q2 6:23 | 7 | 10 | Punt | 14–20 |
| NO | Q2 1:52 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 14–20 |
| CHI | Q2 0:52 | 5 | 37 | Missed field goal | 14–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| CHI | Q3 8:15 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 21–20 |
| NO | Q3 5:19 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 21–20 |
| CHI | Q3 3:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–20 |
| NO | Q3 2:57 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 21–20 |
| CHI | Q4 14:42 | 12 | 46 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| NO | Q4 8:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–23 |
| CHI | Q4 6:54 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 21–23 |
| NO | Q4 3:12 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 29–23 |
| CHI | Q4 1:11 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 29–23 |
| NO | Q4 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 29–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/34 | 233 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Pathon | 5 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 26/40 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 8 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Dez White | 3 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| John Davis | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Dustin Lyman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00