Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.008
- 44.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.177
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- 43.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 1.60Points / drive1.46
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.049EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 5-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 16/25 | 118 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darrell Jackson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 7 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 23/38 | 282 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Sean Bennett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.56