2002 · Week 3
Final
3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
SF -10
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.098
- 41.7%Success rate45.2%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.7%Third-down rate52.5%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.22Points / drive1.83
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–5 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.2 points. SF are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 17/28 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 1/2 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeron Flemister | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 10/19 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 5/9 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 15 | 94 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.50