2002 · Week 3

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Shane Matthews

10·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

44

Model margin

+2.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge map49ers
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.098
  • 41.7%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.083EPA / rush+0.004
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate52.5%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.83
  • 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed+0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–5 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. SF are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6WAS @ SF17–23SF
2023 · W17SF @ WAS27–10SF
2022 · W16WAS @ SF20–37SF
2020 · W14WAS @ SF23–15WAS
2019 · W7SF @ WAS9–0SF
2017 · W6SF @ WAS24–26WAS
2014 · W12WAS @ SF13–17SF
2013 · W12SF @ WAS27–6SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–SF
SFQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:0528Turnover0–0
SFQ1 10:20214Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:44412Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:38737Punt0–7
WASQ1 4:371173Field goal3–7
SFQ2 14:24521Punt3–7
WASQ2 11:1138Punt3–13
SFQ2 9:32138Touchdown3–14
WASQ2 9:161375Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 3:021278Field goal10–17
WASQ3 15:0039Punt10–17
SFQ3 13:2738Punt10–17
WASQ3 11:5035Punt10–17
SFQ3 10:56419Punt10–17
SFQ3 8:1620Turnover10–17
WASQ3 7:273-1Punt10–17
SFQ3 6:34733Field goal10–20
WASQ3 2:12518Punt10–20
SFQ4 14:51520Punt10–20
WASQ4 11:50410Punt10–20
SFQ4 9:3431Punt10–20
WASQ4 8:1010Turnover10–20
SFQ4 7:591281End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews17/2816910
Danny Wuerffel1/21401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis13594.50
Ladell Betts122.00
Jacquez Green111.00
Derrius Thompson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zeron Flemister34571
Rock Cartwright22290
Stephen Davis45260
Derrius Thompson24210
Ladell Betts22190
Rod Gardner15160
Jacquez Green25110
Kevin Lockett0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia10/198401
Tim Rattay5/94100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst19975.10
Kevan Barlow15946.31
Terrell Owens13838.01
Jeff Garcia3217.00
Tim Rattay320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens27330
Tai Streets33270
Garrison Hearst36250
J.J. Stokes46200
Eric Johnson35200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.50