2002 · Week 4

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Rodney Peete

14·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • -0.177EPA / play+0.010
  • 35.3%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.144EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.219EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.67
  • 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–GB
CARQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:591073Field goal0–3
CARQ1 8:52623Punt0–3
GBQ1 5:523-5Punt0–3
CARQ1 5:13878Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 0:23625Punt7–3
CARQ2 12:04513Punt7–3
GBQ2 8:54418Punt7–3
CARQ2 6:44525Punt7–3
GBQ2 3:47761Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 1:43518Turnover7–10
GBQ2 0:43422End of half7–10
GBQ3 15:00525Punt7–10
CARQ3 11:523-3Punt7–10
GBQ3 11:16411Punt7–10
CARQ3 9:22415Punt7–10
GBQ3 7:37629Turnover7–10
CARQ3 4:38634Turnover7–10
GBQ3 2:043-4Punt7–10
CARQ3 0:46553Touchdown14–10
GBQ4 12:55312Punt14–10
CARQ4 11:20312Turnover14–10
GBQ4 9:4231Punt14–10
CARQ4 8:4739Punt14–10
GBQ4 6:29531Touchdown14–17
CARQ4 4:101156Missed field goal14–17
GBQ4 0:1300End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rodney Peete10/2420200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith22663.02
Dee Brown9525.80
Rodney Peete1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith5101160
Karl Hankton12310
Kris Mangum23170
Lamar Smith1270
Isaac Byrd0200
Wesley Walls0100
Dee Brown0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre18/3220011
Bubba Franks1/13110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green17734.30
Donald Driver11515.00
Najeh Davenport3124.00
Brett Favre1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver57972
Robert Ferguson510580
Bubba Franks46330
Terry Glenn11170
Karsten Bailey23160
Ahman Green1280
Najeh Davenport1220
Tony Carter0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.61