Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.177EPA / play+0.010
- 35.3%Success rate43.5%
- -0.144EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.219EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- 29.3%Third-down rate38.0%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 0.82Points / drive1.67
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Peete | 10/24 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 22 | 66 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Dee Brown | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 5 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Karl Hankton | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kris Mangum | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/32 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 1/1 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 7 | 97 | 2 |
| Robert Ferguson | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Karsten Bailey | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61