Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
44
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.008
- 42.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- 40.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.71
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 16/29 | 144 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 16 | 105 | 6.6 | 1 |
| William Green | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Northcutt | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| William Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/25 | 143 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Maddox | 11/13 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 24 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 9 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 7 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.26