2002 · Week 4 · Division

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

13·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

44

Model margin

+3.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.008
  • 42.2%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.71
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed-0.086

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:231148Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:11625Punt3–0
CLEQ1 4:021272Field goal6–0
PITQ2 14:211274Field goal6–3
CLEQ2 6:30623Turnover6–3
PITQ2 2:56825Field goal6–6
CLEQ2 0:2326Turnover6–6
CLEQ3 15:003-2Punt6–6
PITQ3 13:0449Punt6–6
CLEQ3 11:0833Punt6–6
PITQ3 10:01416Punt6–6
CLEQ3 7:4139Punt6–6
PITQ3 6:08921Punt6–6
CLEQ3 2:54741Touchdown13–6
PITQ4 14:57946Turnover13–6
CLEQ4 9:05721Punt13–6
PITQ4 4:14777Touchdown13–13
CLEQ4 2:02517Punt13–13
PITQ4 0:512-1End of half13–13
PITOT10Turnover13–13
CLEOT37Missed field goal13–13
PITOT959Missed field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch16/2914402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White161056.61
William Green7162.30
Tim Couch122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Northcutt45380
Andre Davis24360
Kevin Johnson39230
Aaron Shea22220
Jamel White34140
Mark Campbell22110
Quincy Morgan0200
William Green0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart15/2514301
Tommy Maddox11/1312211
Antwaan Randle El0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kordell Stewart7304.30
Jerome Bettis14241.70
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala5204.00
Amos Zereoue4102.50
Antwaan Randle El284.00
Tommy Maddox210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward9131040
Plaxico Burress712841
Antwaan Randle El56510
Terance Mathis33250
Amos Zereoue1230
Kordell Stewart0100
Mark Bruener12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.90
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.26