Closing spread
STL -12
Total
44
Model margin
-0.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. STL are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 26/36 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.06
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.