Closing spread
STL -12
Total
44
Model margin
-0.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. STL are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:17 | 1 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:09 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:54 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 8:46 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:19 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 1:32 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:25 | 6 | 58 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 10:36 | 11 | 33 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 4:36 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 3:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 2:44 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:25 | 3 | -1 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q3 12:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q3 10:40 | 14 | 75 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 2:05 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LA | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q4 13:38 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q4 9:56 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 4:23 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q4 1:27 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 13–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 26/36 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.06
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.