Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
35
Model margin
+1.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.065EPA / play-0.058
- 49.4%Success rate41.6%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.044
- +0.062EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- 37.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.76Points / drive1.09
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 35/53 | 328 | 1 | 3 |
| Rod Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 9 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Redman | 13/24 | 152 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 5 | 8 | 84 | 2 |
| Brandon Stokley | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| John Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.69
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.69