2002 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

23·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Chris Redman

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -9

Total

35

Model margin

+1.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.0%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • +0.065EPA / play-0.058
  • 49.4%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.044
  • +0.062EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 37.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.09
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • +0.007EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
DENQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:4731Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:17717Field goal3–0
BALQ1 5:4539Punt3–0
DENQ1 4:02518Punt3–0
BALQ1 1:39546Touchdown3–7
DENQ2 14:154-3Punt3–7
BALQ2 12:22423Touchdown3–14
DENQ2 10:25633Punt3–14
BALQ2 6:391137Field goal3–17
DENQ2 1:5723Turnover3–17
BALQ2 1:26436Touchdown3–24
DENQ2 0:18223Opp touchdown3–31
BALQ2 0:0000Opp touchdown3–31
BALQ3 15:0039Field goal3–34
DENQ3 13:061162Touchdown10–34
BALQ3 8:4435Punt10–34
DENQ3 7:41615Punt10–34
BALQ3 5:3530Punt10–34
DENQ3 4:04756Touchdown16–34
BALQ3 1:2449Turnover16–34
DENQ4 14:48313Turnover16–34
BALQ4 14:0836Punt16–34
DENQ4 13:00636Turnover16–34
BALQ4 10:19643Turnover16–34
DENQ4 6:45952Touchdown23–34
BALQ4 4:4239Punt23–34
DENQ4 3:36841Missed field goal23–34
BALQ4 1:5000End of half23–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese35/5332813
Rod Smith0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis8556.90
Mike Anderson5193.80
Olandis Gary5183.60
Brian Griese242.01
Reuben Droughns111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed McCaffrey810900
Shannon Sharpe912750
Rod Smith59610
Clinton Portis35300
Ashley Lelie25240
Olandis Gary23140
Mike Anderson2380
Patrick Hape1421

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Redman13/2415220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis25783.11
Brandon Stokley166.00
Chris Redman400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap58842
Brandon Stokley24350
Jamal Lewis45210
Travis Taylor1580
John Jones1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -94.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.69
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.69