2002 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

30·48

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.161
  • 45.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.224
  • -0.028EPA / rush+0.083
  • 11.0%Explosive rate11.6%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.29
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 8–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.1 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3KC @ MIA24–10KC
2023 · playoffsMIA @ KC7–26KC
2023 · W9MIA @ KC14–21KC
2020 · W14KC @ MIA33–27KC
2017 · W16MIA @ KC13–29KC
2014 · W3KC @ MIA34–15KC
2011 · W9MIA @ KC31–3MIA
2008 · W16MIA @ KC38–31MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–KC
MIAQ1 15:00437Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 13:071178Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 6:531-5Turnover7–7
KCQ1 6:3834Field goal7–10
MIAQ1 5:371156Field goal10–10
KCQ2 14:21469Touchdown10–17
MIAQ2 12:37410Turnover10–17
KCQ2 10:55552Touchdown10–24
MIAQ2 9:2332Punt10–24
KCQ2 8:1931Punt10–24
MIAQ2 6:17651Field goal13–24
KCQ2 3:393-3Punt13–24
MIAQ2 2:44853Field goal16–24
KCQ3 15:00780Touchdown16–31
MIAQ3 11:33472Touchdown23–31
KCQ3 9:15852Punt23–31
MIAQ3 4:35414Punt23–31
KCQ3 3:15861Touchdown23–38
MIAQ4 13:40658Touchdown30–38
KCQ4 11:3033Punt30–38
MIAQ4 10:3830Turnover30–38
KCQ4 9:3739Field goal30–41
MIAQ4 7:3325Turnover30–41
KCQ4 6:39220Touchdown30–48
MIAQ4 5:48736Turnover30–48
KCQ4 4:09516Punt30–48
MIAQ4 2:17510Turnover on downs30–48
KCQ4 1:4638End of half30–48

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler29/4531014

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams14664.71
James McKnight11919.00
Jay Fiedler3155.01
Robert Edwards155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Chambers6121020
Oronde Gadsden45690
Ricky Williams78600
Randy McMichael24180
Robert Edwards33150
James McKnight11100
Dedric Ward2480

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green24/3432850

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes23522.31
Trent Green34816.00
Mike Cloud382.70
Dante Hall155.00
Eddie Kennison144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez791403
Priest Holmes68630
Eddie Kennison23570
Johnnie Morton46391
Dante Hall36210
Billy Baber1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34