Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.161
- 45.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.224
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.083
- 11.0%Explosive rate11.6%
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.1%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.85Points / drive2.29
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. KC are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 29/45 | 310 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 6 | 12 | 102 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 24/34 | 328 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 52 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 9 | 140 | 3 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Dante Hall | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Billy Baber | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34