Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44
Model margin
-0.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.035
- 45.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.097
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.070
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- 43.6%Third-down rate43.0%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.93Points / drive1.60
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 29/53 | 273 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moe Williams | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 15 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 12 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 13/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 139 | 5.8 | 4 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 5 | 92 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.85
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.56