2002 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

23·48

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Trent Dilfer

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44

Model margin

-0.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.035
  • 45.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.097
  • +0.071EPA / rush-0.070
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 43.6%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.60
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.082EPA / play allowed+0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001174Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 11:1736Punt0–7
SEAQ1 9:36472Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 7:241177Touchdown7–14
SEAQ1 1:491163Field goal7–17
MINQ2 11:461451Field goal10–17
SEAQ2 3:13180Touchdown10–24
MINQ2 2:5300Touchdown10–24
SEAQ2 2:47329Touchdown10–31
MINQ2 1:5700Touchdown10–37
SEAQ2 1:52114Touchdown10–38
MINQ2 1:4821Opp touchdown10–45
SEAQ2 1:0600Opp touchdown10–45
MINQ2 1:06749Missed field goal10–45
MINQ3 15:0039Punt10–45
SEAQ3 13:384-8Turnover10–45
MINQ3 12:42214Touchdown17–45
SEAQ3 12:07518Punt17–45
MINQ3 10:29967Turnover on downs17–45
SEAQ3 7:0133Punt17–45
MINQ3 5:26947Turnover on downs17–45
SEAQ3 2:3232Punt17–45
MINQ3 1:28920Turnover on downs17–45
SEAQ4 14:253-4Punt17–45
MINQ4 13:001160Touchdown23–45
SEAQ4 8:56939Field goal23–48
MINQ4 2:481242Turnover23–48
SEAQ4 0:091-1End of half23–48

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper29/5327302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett15916.10
Daunte Culpepper9637.01
Moe Williams6193.22
Randy Moss11111.00
Doug Chapman11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Moe Williams77770
Randy Moss615500
Michael Bennett45440
Byron Chamberlain37290
D'Wayne Bates35270
Derrick Alexander412240
Chris Walsh22220

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer13/2822210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander241395.84
Koren Robinson11111.00
Trent Dilfer351.70
Maurice Morris133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shaun Alexander35921
Darrell Jackson38470
Bobby Engram13380
Koren Robinson59350
Jerramy Stevens12100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.85
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.56