Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/53 | 353 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 13 | 15 | 128 | 0 |
| David Patten | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
6.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.